MVP · Cap-bounded · Estimate only

Where will limits land next year?

HUD won’t publish FY2027 income limits until spring 2027 — but the year-over-year move is bounded by a published rule. Pick an area and a growth assumption; this tool projects next year’s limits and max LIHTC rents as a floor → point → ceiling range, never a fake-precise single number.

Your forecast inputs

Set the area & growth assumption

or pick manually
5.0%
An estimate — HUD’s FY2027 ACS figure is not published until ~spring 2027. This drives the year-over-year cap (= twice this value, floored at 5%, capped at 10%). It is not HUD’s published headline MFI growth.
5.0%
Sets the point estimate. Defaults to dACS; override if you expect this area to move faster or slower than the national median. Clamped to the floor/ceiling range.
A new/pipeline deal can see limits fall up to 5%/yr (floor = 95% of current). An existing, placed-in-service project is protected by HERA hold-harmless (floor = current).
Forecast year
FY 2027 — projected from published FY 2026 data
This MVP projects a single cap-bounded year-over-year step from the current published data (FY2026).

Loading FY2026 HUD MTSP data…

Pick an area on the left (by address or the dropdowns) to project next year’s income and rent limits as a range.

⚠ Estimate only — not HUD-official

This tool forecasts next year’s limits from HUD’s published year-over-year cap rule. It is an estimate, not an official figure. HUD’s actual FY2027 limits depend on new ACS data not yet published. Verify against HUD before relying on this for a transaction, underwriting, or compliance decision.

How the forecast works

Methodology

HUD’s income limits move year to year, but not by an unbounded amount. Since FY2010 HUD has applied a cap and floor to the annual change, and beginning with FY2024 it added an absolute 10% ceiling on top of the formula cap (Federal Register 2024-00279). The FY2026 cap landed at 10%. This tool projects a single cap-bounded year-over-year step from the current published FY2026 MTSP file.

The model — implemented exactly
// dACS = assumed unadjusted ACS national median change (your input)
cap     = min(0.10, max(0.05, 2 × dACS))
ceiling = current × (1 + cap)
floor   = (mode == 'new') ? current × 0.95 : current
point   = clamp(current × (1 + gArea), floor, ceiling)
// then, per band & bedroom:
maxGrossRent = floor(limitimputedHH × 0.30 / 12)

The cap is twice the assumed ACS national median change, bounded to a 5% floor and a 10% absolute ceiling. The ceiling applies that cap to today’s limit. The floor depends on the deal stage: a new/pipeline deal can fall up to 5%/year, while an existing placed-in-service project is protected by HERA hold-harmless (it cannot decrease). The point estimate uses your area-specific growth assumption, clamped into the floor–ceiling range. When your area assumption meets or exceeds the cap, the cap is binding — the point sits at the ceiling.

Each AMI band and bedroom count is projected by applying these three multipliers (floor / point / ceiling) to HUD’s published FY2026 limit, then running the standard LIHTC rent formula: interpolate the published 1–8 person income row at the bedroom’s imputed household size, take 30% of income, divide by 12, and truncate to whole dollars.

Why a range, not a number

HUD’s actual FY2027 figures depend on American Community Survey data that does not exist yet. Anyone quoting a single precise FY2027 limit today is guessing. What is knowable is the boundary the published rule imposes: next year’s limit cannot rise more than the cap, and (for a placed-in-service project) cannot fall at all. This tool shows that envelope honestly — a conservative floor, an expected point, and a cap-bounded ceiling — so you can underwrite to a range instead of a false certainty.

  • Floor — the conservative case. New deals: 95% of current; existing projects: hold-harmless at current.
  • Point — your expected case, driven by the area growth assumption, clamped to the range.
  • Ceiling — the most the cap rule allows the limit to rise next year.

Sources: HUD FY2026 MTSP Income Limits (published data, verified to source); HUD Income Limits methodology; Federal Register 2024-00279 (FY2024 introduction of the 10% absolute cap); Rev. Rul. 89-24 / IRC §42(g)(2)(C) (imputed household-size convention). Disclaimer: For informational purposes only — not legal, tax, or financial advice, and not an official HUD figure. Forecasts are estimates of next year’s limits from HUD’s published cap rule; verify against HUD before relying on them for a transaction.